Florida Atlantic +10 2.2% play

Navy returns some new starters, but they are breaking in a new QB this year who started and did not look good in the game against Army to end the year.  This would have been a play of the day if the line did not move against me like it has, but I feel still very strongly about FAU and my algorithms also feel strongly with an 11-2 ATS edge.

I spoke about this team on my podcast quite a bit this off season and it's not just the splash of Lane Kiffin who I feel is an under rated coach.  This is FAU's best recruiting class ever ranked #1 in Conference USA and 69^th overall, Navy was 97^th.  They also bring in a potential star at QB in DeAndre Johson who I think will make some splashes this season.  The former Florida State QB out of high school played at JUCO Eastern Mississippi and comes over with his QB coach Clint Tricket.  Kiffin also brings over another young coach in Kendal Briles to lead the offense.  Unfortunate for Briles he shares the same last name as his father, but after beign the OC at Baylor the last two years this is a great move for him and should get him another job after the year.

Other reasons to like Florida Atlantic are the fact that they are among the most experienced teams in the country returning 17 total starters and they lost just 8 letterman.  They have been a team lacking confidence the last two years with 7 combined net close losses including multiple blown fourth quarter leads.  They have 3 guys on offense that I feel are first team All-CUSA in WR Kalib Woods, C antonyo Woods, and T Reggie Bain.  Meanwhile the defense has two as well in S Jalen Young, and LB Azeez Al-Shaair.

Navy always out performs expectations, but I prefer to back them as an underdog on the road not a double digit favorite.  They break in a new QB which is the most important position on a triple option team.  FAU has had all summer to prepare for the offense they will face and I think they have the potential of winning this game outright.